Michigan Preview and Projections
Favorites, Flyers, and Fakes: Breaking Down the Michigan Field
Favorites
Kyle Larson (10.2% to win) – Larson hasn’t won at Michigan since his three consecutive victories in 2016-17, but he’s poised to contend on Sunday. He led 41 laps here last year before crashing out and has shown strong speed throughout the season.
Denny Hamlin (9.2% to win) – Hamlin is consistently a threat on 2-mile tracks. He’s led in seven of the last eight races on tracks this length, including a pair of third-place finishes at Michigan.
Ryan Blaney (7.4% to win) – Blaney had one of the fastest cars at Michigan last year, leading twice for 15 laps and winning Stage 1 before fading late. He’s coming off a win at Nashville and carries solid momentum into the weekend.
Contrarian Contenders
Ty Gibbs (3.7% to win) – Despite a tough season, Gibbs has been strong at Michigan, finishing 10th, 11th, and 3rd in three starts. It’s been a disaster season for Gibbs, but his track history suggests this could be a bounce-back weekend.
Austin Dillon (1.2% to win) – Dillon tends to perform well on big tracks and is one of only seven drivers to finish top-20 in every Michigan race of the Next Gen era. He ran in the top 15 most of the day last year and could sneak into the top 10 with similar pace.
Riley Herbst (0.7% to win) – It’s been a rocky rookie campaign for Herbst, but his 23XI Toyota has speed. He’s had success on 2-mile tracks in Xfinity, including three top-10s at Michigan and a win at Indy. A quietly strong run isn’t out of the question.
Contrarian Pretender
Carson Hocevar (2.5% to win) – Hocevar has flashed speed in recent weeks, but he lacks both experience and meaningful results at Michigan. While his raw talent and aggressive style are undeniable, they haven’t yet translated into consistent finishes — especially at fast, aero-sensitive tracks like this one. He’s unlikely to seriously contend for the win at his home track this week.